Picking a Rookie of the Year is probably the most subjective of the big baseball awards. Evaluating a player on such a small sample size is anathema to sabermetricians, and hype can help or hurt the impression a player makes on his new fans. To me, the best rookies not only perform well, they show potential. The guy who comes up and has more HR than BB doesn’t really impress me (though sometimes that’s all you have), the guy that fields well and has clutch hits or pitches and still manages to put together decent numbers are the real future stars.
National League RoY: Troy Tulowitzki. Between Ryan Braun and Tulowitzki, I have to Tulowitzki the edge, but I didn’t really get a chance to see either of these guys play. Based on what I’ve read and what little I’ve seen, Tulowitzki is a talented shortstop who can hit and Braun is a clumsy third baseman who can really hit. Braun pretty much beats Tulowitzki hands down in terms of production, but I don’t trust power numbers from rookies (will he be a McGwire or a Maas?) as much as I do fielding and discipline, so Tulowitzki gets it.
American League RoY: Dustin Pedroia. Sox fans have been hearing about Pedroia since he was drafted, but always with caveats like “maybe he’s too small” or veiled warnings like “he plays with heart”. He came up early in the season and basically stunk up the joint, but his manager had faith, and eventually something clicked. Pedroia turned into a hitting machine, fielded like veteran, and always seemed to be fired up. I think the sox have a solid .300+ hitter for a few years, probably settling into the #2 spot if Ellsbury’s power is low enough that he becomes the leadoff. Runner Up: Daisuke Matsuzaka*
*I love the fact that the baseball market is going global, but something just doesn’t feel right about experienced players winning Rookie of the Year. Can you imagine Manny Ramirez going to play in Jpan and being considered a rookie? Even if I didn’t feel this way I still wouldn’t have given Dice-K the nod over Pedroia.